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Sample race handicapping

  
Date: 12-04-1997 Sandown  Race:7  Going: Good
Type: Open Hcp Distance: 1200m Limit:51kg

                                           Scr:7-10-15

Effectively I am left with a field of 12 horses to handicap. Always try to narrow the field down to as few
a competitors as possible, without letting the worthwhile combatants slip through my handicapping.
 

Horse is NOT used in calculation.
Horse used in the calculation.

Participants

Name Analysed TAB # Claim Rider Weight Odds
Royal Snack

8 a1.5 M. Pritchard 60 kg 20/1
Elegancy

5 a2.5 S. Hyland 59.5 kg 9/4
Royal Discard 

11 a3 S. Tsaikos 58 kg 8/1
Coaltar

6   G J Childs 56 kg 10/1
Dry Humour

10 a1.5 Rawiller 54.5 kg 12/1
Permai

2 a3 L Dowson 53.5 kg 5/1
Baydur

    Scratched    
Halsingborg

3 a1.5 Craig Williams 53 kb 20/1
South Ridge

4   D Nicolic 53 kg 12/1
Endless Power

    Scratched    
Mecki

1 a E Cassar 52.5 kg 25/1
Just Nelson

12 a V Duric 51.5 kg 20/1
All Enquires

7   D Gauci 51 kg 5/1
Petrify

5   A Finally 51 kg 33/1

Horses' analysis

Horse

Description

Royal Snack

 

It’s last race was in Hong Kong’s Sha-Tin race course on 8 Dec 96. Where it finished second in a 2400m race. That was 4 month ago, as good a horse he is, he has one win to his credit first up from a spell from 8 starts. In his winning races he was ridden by a senior jockey and not a claiming apprentice. At 20/1 obviously there was not a lot of stable confidence behind him. I thought it is safe to put the pen through it. He ran second last at 50/1.
Elegancy Last three efforts first class, a front runner who won at this track on the 23-03-97 by 2 1/2 lg. leading throughout carried 58.5 kg with Hyland on board. I raised the number of his wins by one (Prize money won, and 12 2nd ‘s)He would have to be one of the main chances again. 
Royal Discard Had one run since a let up for a 5.2 lg. 9th in a ($100.6) G3 race, so an improved run was expected. I did not think it had a winning chance but it was a contender to be rated.
Coaltar Has not had a race since last November (14th ) 6 starts first up for a second placing, safely held here. Pen through it. Discard.
Dry Humour First run for three weeks 29-03 3lg 5th  in a ($37)1100m in relative terms he is1kg.better handicapped here, I expected some improvement on his last effort due to his good track work, for which he is credited a .5 lengths .improvement. The rider was also rated from 7 to 8 in ability. I also lifted his # of wins from 5 to 6. ($173.K P’Money and 9 2nd ’s). Morning’s prise 12/1, not bad he stays in.
Permai By race morning it firmed to 7/2. Here is another well performed 4yo. 29-03 won by 2 ¼ lg. 2nd early led turn. ($37) race 1100m. He is in it for a long way.
Halsingborg I almost weakened to leave him in, but on a 5th at Kilmore (3.2 lg) even though it was an Open Hcp. I decided to give him the chop, to 
many disappointments through putting my faith in Country form. Especially when the horse had 31 starts for 9 wins but only for a total prize money of $91 thousand. Another reason you could call it a private observation over the years, but somehow horses with peculiar names do not seem to perform well. At least not for me. It ran 8th. 
South Ridge 7/1 race morning. Another country performer, same story with the prize money. Last performance 2nd  at Traralgon in a ($10.3) race. It can go around with ought my support. Ran 12th  at 7/1, can you see how easy it is to be misled by Country form? It almost sounds convincing.2nd  April 5th  Traralgon ¾ lg. Open ($10.3) 1100m carried 58.5 on a 52 limit, beaten equal fav. Getting in this race at just 1kg. over the limit. Come in sucker at 7/1, finished about 12th .Country form must be fresh and very strong with a senior capable rider in the pigskin before I consider supporting the horse.
Mecki It firmed by race morning to 10/1 partly because it won 2 out of 2 first up from a spell, from barrier 1, .5 kg.over the limit sounds good so far, against it, it is a Tasmanian horse (Country form, or as good as) same story 8 wins for $55,1. Finished 7th .
Just Nelson Coming back from spell needs generally a run or two.
All Enquires 9/2 race morning ridden by one of the most underrated jockeys 31-03 Won C6 race 3kg over the limit at Caulfield, led settling 2nd on turn (1kg. Bonus given) definitely one to leave in.
Petrify Will not bore you with the pitfalls of country form again.
 
 
 
 

Enquiries to: Les Burton  
P.O. Box 455, Surry Hills, NSW 2010, Australia 
Phone: +61 2 9310 3241 
Home Page: http://scientificracing.tripod.com/
Copyright © 2001 by Les Burton, Australia. All Rights Reserved.

Last updated January 2003

 

 

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